Monday, March 19, 2007

Russian Presidential Succession: A Reality Check

A remarkable feature of this anti-U.S. and anti-NATO rhetoric is that none of the official PR champions is really serious about the proposed counter-measures. They are perfectly well informed that the yet-to-be-deployed U.S. systems would not constitute any threat to Russia, and they know full well both that it is nearly impossible to resume production of intermediate-range missiles and that the “fifth generation” S-400 is based on pre-computer-era technologies. The aggressive statements could not even qualify as strategic bluff, as they amount partly to claims for extra resources from the increasingly strained state budget but mostly to self-positioning in the Byzantine intrigues around Putin’s fast-approaching but by no means certain departure from the Kremlin. Ivanov presumes that nothing is better for surfing over bothersome domestic problems than a towering wave of external threat, but Putin is still able to check the progress of competing “surfers” by regulating this imaginary wave.


Interesting stuff there. Putin's hand in things that is.

I still think Ivanov is a disaster waiting to happen.

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