Thursday, November 28, 2013

Little Scotlanders Outline Defense Plans, Including Nuke Removal After Independence

The future basing of the UK's nuclear weapons capability continues to face uncertainty, with the Scottish government setting an aspirational date of 2021 to remove nuclear weapons from Scotland in the case of independence.

Currently all the UK's nuclear weapons are based and stored in Scotland, with the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) government pledging to remove them as "a priority" if independence occurs. Although Scottish independence appears likely to be rejected by voters in September 2014, the implication of a 'Yes' vote would be substantial on the nuclear deterrent of one of the world's only eight declared nuclear powers.

Scottish independence would see nuclear weapons removed from Scottish territory within the first term of an independent Scottish Parliament, it was claimed in the Scottish government's long-awaited White Paper on Scottish independence, 'Scotland's Future: Your guide to an independent Scotland', published on 26 November.

With the first independent Scottish government outlined to take power in 2016, this sets a 2021 timeline for the removal of the UK's Trident submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) capability from Scotland. The entire UK submarine force is currently based at HMNB Clyde, with RNAD Coulport responsible for storage and loading of the Royal Navy's Trident SLBMs.

The SNP's priority is stated as the "speediest and safest possible transition" of nuclear weapons from Scotland, although it notes that the "detailed process and timetable for removal would be a priority for negotiation between the Scottish government and the Westminster government".

The paper also outlines the SNP's vision for a future Scottish Defence Force. The land force element would comprise a headquarters and single combined-arms brigade, initially armed with equipment currently in UK service. This would include six helicopters and two light armoured reconnaissance units, two light artillery units, although no mention is made of any heavy armour capability.

Scotland would hope to inherit on independence 2 of the Royal Navy's Type 23 frigates, a 'command platform', plus 10 smaller patrol and mine vessels. They would be supported by the procurement of about four maritime patrol aircraft, which are planned to enter service by 2021.

The combat edge of a Scottish Air Force would be provided by 12 Eurofighter Typhoons, potentially later 16 Typhoons, with transport provided by 6 Lockheed Martin C-130J Hercules aircraft and a helicopter squadron, all from current Royal Air Force stocks - the SNP hopes.

Meanwhile, the White Paper outlines a force strength of 7,500 regular personnel and 2,000 reservists in 2016, rising to 10,000/3,500 in 2021 and 15,000/5,000 in 2026.

Manning is likely to be a key issue at first for any future Scottish Defence Force, with the White Paper containing no plans to transfer 'Scottish' units on mass into Scottish hands. Instead it will be down to individual soldiers, the SNP states, to choose their allegiance (although Westminster may take a different view).

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